Over at Digital Cinema Report, IndiePix prez Bob Alexander has a column about the “New Era for Independent Film.” Among his points:

• Over the last 3 months, the indie distribution business has seen some major shifts, either towards elimination of specialty divisions at studios (Warner Independent, New Line, Picturehouse); financial instability (THINKFilm); or consolidation of cable markets for indie film (Sundance @ Cablevision).
• With the expenses of theatrical, it will be too costly to put indie films in theatres.
• Traditional indie distributors don’t have a plan for this end-of-theatrical marketplace.
• The new era will allow for amazing new films with great cinematography, editing, and storytelling but will not use theatrical distribution (but IndiePix will be at the forefront, natch!)

While I applaud Bob’s vision and his optimism, I can’t say I agree with the model he’s proposing, at least as I understand it. While I believe that there will be a market for digital distribution for indies (it is, in fact, the premise of this here blog), I think that the idea that theatrical will totally wither and die seems unlikely for a number of reasons. What seems more likely is that indie theatrical will need to become more limber, have a better understanding of what was once known as the “non-theatrical” market (schools, museums, non-profits), find more creative ways of rolling films out and rely more on marketing than advertising. Some kind of “theatrical” is still important and will continue to be so- even though the real money for the last decade has been in ancillary.

One reason traditionally is reviews- perhaps a new first gate will emerge for reviews (major festivals?) but so far, if you want reviews, it’s pretty important to have a theatrical. Conceivably there could be an online system with the same prestige as theatrical but right now the model seems to be to get everything out there and “let the audience decide”- which they have done in the past with the help of reviews from theatrical runs. Reviews are not what they once were, but for the indie world, they are still pretty important for getting people interested in the film. A great NYTimes review still has traction- and a theatrical is needed, by and large, for the Times.

Maybe even more importantly, theatrical is a great social networking tool. I think it has not been exploited enough in this way- there are a lot of things exhibitors can do to make their theatre more than just a 2-hour destination point. But even so, going to a movie is a great social activity as a date or as thing to do with friends- it’s economical, climate-controlled, and creates a common experience in 90-120 minutes. It’s also fun to do alone when you want to get out of the house. I don’t think watching something on your computer (or even set-top box) will replace this completely.

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